فصلنامه پژوهش های سیاستگذاری و برنامه ریزی انرژی
سال هفتم شماره 1 (بهار 1400)

Despite the Sixth Development Plan’s emphasis on the growth of renewable electricity, it does not have high implementation priorities in practice. With the development of fossil fuel power plants, the competitiveness and development of renewable power plants will also decrease. Due to the country’s need for renewable resources in the future, its development should be a concern from now on. This study aims to identify the dynamics of renewable electricity development from a macro perspective, and to obtain a correct estimate of the continuation of the current situation and to provide appropriate policies for the development of renewable electricity based on these dynamics for an era of 30 years to 2050. A combined framework for systemic modeling is proposed to create a macro-policy perspective, analyze competitorschr('39') behavior, and how investors make decisions. Verifications show that due to the high validity of model, it can be utilized to estimate strategic decisions in energy planning. By simulating different scenarios, it becomes clear that the current trend cannot achieve the set goals. Instead, by changing the policy, it is possible to increase the renewable electricity capacity share, from 2.3% by 2050 (with the current trend) to 5.4% - 13.7% (in different scenarios) with the least financial burden.

This paper aims to produce optimal path to achieve desired energy mix during short- and long-term time intervals. Priority reasearch areas include renewables, productivity of energy uses, and environmental constraints. MESSAGE model is used to evaluate alternative energy supply strategies. Given a vector of demands for specified energy services, MESSAGE determines the optimal final energy demand based on optimizing objective function under a set of user-defined constraints. Before running the MESSAGE, reference energy system of Iran (RES), which consists of resources, energy levels, energy forms, and energy technologies was defined, and then, information related to techo-economical specifications of different technologies was collected.Two Reference Scenarios have considered to estimate the effects of DSM potentials, including Reference+DSM and Reference scenarios. In the Reference+DSM scenario efficiency improvement is considered for each end-use technology in the RES. Comparing the amounts of energy demand in these scenarios shows considerable amount of potential reduction for different energy forms, especially gasoline and gas. According to the results, gasoline and natural gas hold the largest potentials of energy demand reduction, approximately 42% and 39% of total potential, respectively. The significant share of natural gas potential reduction is related to industrial, power plant and residential sectors, which have 19, 16 and 9 billion m3 demand side management potential. In addition, transportation sector has a considerable amount of demand reduction. Results show that the amount of gasoline demand in the reference sector will reach to 107 billion m3, which can be reduced by 51 billion m3 in Reference+DSM scenario.

According to the need of iran, including the city of mashhad for energy and problems caused by environmental pollutants from the consumption of fossil fuels, as well as problems caused by the production and disposal of municipal solid waste, a study has been conducted based on the use of municipal solid waste for biogas production in biogas generators in order to solve the mentioned problems. In this study, in order to investigate the amount of biogas fuel and final energy produced by municipal solid waste in the study area, the presented mathematical models related to single-stage continuous reactors have been used and the economic estimation of the design has been done by retscreen software. The results show that the theoretical methane produced from the digestion process is 55.982 percent and the high and low calorific value of biogas are 22.32 and 20.11 megajoules per cubic meter, respectively. It is expected that for 16 reactors with an input mass flow of 1818.75 kg per day and a minimum residence time of 9.27 days, biogas with a volume flow of 7185.415 cubic meters per day can be achieved. The available power assuming high and low thermal values of fuel in this power plant will be 649.691 and 585.488 kw, respectively. One of the important issues in biogas power plant is optimizing and increasing the efficiency of biogas production. For this purpose, this power plant can be upgraded by using multi-stage hybrid reactors or by using hybrid feeds.

In restructured power sector atmosphere, ownership of generation segment has been offered to private sector while another private sector will be responsible for operation and maintenance of machineries generally over an internal contract. A systematic analysis of their relationship needs accurate study of the contract between parties since the most important factor which form an interaction between parties is their contract. However, asymmetric information phenomena and its sequels, i.e. moral hazard and adverse selection, are obstacles toward favorable designed contract. In this paper, we are trying to analyze relationship between owner and operator of DG (distributed generator) within a contract and over the framework of game theory with emphasis on moral hazard and adverse selection simultaneously. As a result, we are trying to design a set of optimal contracts for offering to operator. The contracts are designed within mathematical approach in a way to maximize owner’s utility while reaching maximum motivation and partnership of operator. Finally, we try to simulate the result and evaluate the accuracy of theoretical assumptions. The result of study indicates how owners of generators can design a set of contracts for offering to possible operators, knowing specifications of their community.

Today, the issue of energy efficiency and energy costs has received more attention in most organizations and industries. As it is often difficult to extract data on material and energy losses and associated costs in the value chain of generating units, many organizations are not fully aware of the actual cost of material and energy losses. Advanced costing methods should be used for this purpose. This study intends to determine material costs and losses and waste management using material and energy flow accounting. The case study is turbine blades manufactured by Iran Power Plant Company. We intend to use the deduced data to examine the costs of turbine blade construction. The conventional method of manufacturing oh turbine blades is the machining method that we will see using it will have a lot of losses. Using the conventional method, there are many losses that by studying the new methods and based on the Material and Energy Flow Cost Accounting System (MEFCA) accounting method proposes a suitable alternative method that improves the efficiency of raw materials and energy. Finally, the results of the study show the efficiency of the proposed accounting method in the power generation industry of the country as a desirable alternative to the traditional costing accounting method.

Although Iran has a suitable position in terms of solar energy resources, but its use has been limited due to the richness of fossil fuels and low energy prices in Iran. Therefore, formulating effective strategies and policies to improve the level of development and diffusion of this technology is very important. In this study, all the various factors were identified from a comprehensive review of the experiences presented in the literature related to the subject, including 142 influential factors. Then, all these factors were divided and "prioritized" through "semi-structured interviews" with the opinions of 15 energy experts, especially according to the conditions of Iran. Content analysis of experts opinions showed that 55 factors out of the total factors are important for Iran in the "level of influence of energy policymakers". These factors divided to 9 general factors, including "policy", "institutional", "budget", "economic" (system economics and macroeconomics), "socio-cultural", "human resources", "capability of "Industries, technologies and related infrastructure", "geographical, climatic and environmental" and "foreign policy". Despite the high importance of the vast majority of factors, Iran in most cases has not performed well and has acted below average. The results show that the importance of "credit and budget" and "policy" factors is more than other factors and "institutional", "economic" and "human resources" are in the second level. By calculating and plotting the matrices related to the "current and favorable status gap" by the IPA method, the factors were completed and prepared for policymakers in the field of renewable energy.

This study was carried out with the aim of pathology of outsourcing contract in Gas Company in Hormozgan province though a combined (qualitative- quantitative) approach. At qualitative part, thematic analysis was applied and in order to collect data, 15 experts were interviewed in a targeted way to reach theoretical saturation. Interviews were validated after initial and secondary coding throughcvi and cvr whose result was to identify 47 items. At quantitative part, data obtained from interviews was designed within Likertchr('39')s 5- point questionnaire and presented to the employees working in Hormozgan Gas Company to be surveyed by experts. Sampling of study was done through random sampling way in Morganchr('39')s table through which 167 individuals were collected. The questionnaire had face validity and its construct validity was confirmed by factor analysis way. Moreover, reliability of questionnaire was verified through Alpha Cronbach method. Findings of study indicated that outsourcing contract needs to be reviewed upon 28 indices in the human resource legal issues, regulatory issues, assessment of contractor qualification and supplying required consuming goods. In this regard, some suggestions were offered.